A three-and-half-year-old ceasefire, shaky but standing, has taken away a full fledged war between Government troops and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) though the latter is still engaged in low intensity attacks.
But a bigger "guerrilla war" seems to be escalating in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) with just 17 days to go for the presidential elections. There is no "ceasefire" in sight and there are fears of more "political landmines" and "attacks" escalating as the D-day draws near.
Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse's media campaign co-ordinator and Ministerial colleague Mangala Samaraweera, once whispered to a friend as he walked out of the Janadipathi Mandiraya that he hoped he would not have to come there again. Not until Rajapakse was elected President, he was heard to say.
In Matara later last week he was busy on the campaign trail when his phone rang. President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga was on the line. It was a social call and Kumaratunga would want to know how he was keeping, or so he thought. They had not spoken in a while.
When he picked up the phone and said "hello," there was Kumaratunga berating him on reported remarks at a news conference days earlier. She referred to remarks said to have been made by Samaraweera that Kumaratunga had endorsed the SLFP candidate's "Mahinda Chinthanaya" or Mahinda's Vision - his manifesto. She said neither she, nor the SLFP had officially endorsed it. Kumaratunga said Samaraweera is not her official spokesman and should not make statements on behalf of her ever again.
Samaraweera said he did not announce that Kumaratunga had endorsed the manifesto. He said the question at the news conference was one that he could not avoid. Hence, he had stated the fact - Committee members appointed by the SLFP Central Committee had endorsed the document. In fact, they had placed their signatures acknowledging their approval, he said. Kumaratunga then told Samaraweera that he should correct it at the very next news conference by saying the 'Mahinda Chinthanaya' did not receive her approval.
That same evening Samaraweera drove to Colombo. There was another polls related news conference. Ahead of that, he briefed Rajapakse about the Presidential telephone call, and the demand to retract what he had reportedly said. "If she wants - let her say it. You don't have to do it," the Premier responded. Samaraweera made no mention about it at the news conference that followed. In other words, Samaraweera no longer takes orders from President Kumaratunga, but from Prime Minister Rajapakse.
Elsewhere, the new addition to the Cabinet, Minister Dilan Perera (who still remains as Deputy Minister in charge of the media) ran through Rupavahini video footage of the news conference. There was no retraction. Perera told this to Kumaratunga who then shot off a strong letter to her now erstwhile protege Mangala Samaraweera. In that, she insisted that a retraction should be made. It was then that the former Media Minister went through video footage of what he had said during the original press conference. He realised he had made no references to an endorsement of the 'Mahinda Chinthanaya' by Kumaratunga. Instead, he had only said that members of the Committee (named by the Central Committee) had endorsed it.
Emboldened by the realisation, Samaraweera sent a letter with a copy of the tape back to Kumaratunga. The matter seems to have ended there. It soon came to light that Kumaratunga was also engaged in another form of letter writing to SLFP stalwarts.
That had taken the form of a questionnaire where she was seeking their views on some critical issues at the presidential elections - the P-TOMS (or Post - Tsunami Operational Management Structure), a settlement to the ethnic conflict through a united Sri Lanka instead of a unitary one, Rajapakse's agreements with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Jatika Hela Urumaya etc.
One of the recipients was SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena. Rajapakse learnt from Sirisena that he would not be replying to this Presidential survey until after the elections are over. It seemed the SLFP Secretary was also not that loyal to the party leader (Kumaratunga) as one would have expected. Surely, as politicians they all see the winds of change. SLFP sources said that Kumaratunga also telephoned known party organisers at the district level to seek their views. Her lament was that the JVP was coming to the fore and she feared the SLFP would be swallowed up. This cannot be allowed to happen, she had said.
Meanwhile, Kumaratunga held talks with the UNP's Presidential candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe last Monday mainly on a common approach to the peace process. But UNP sources said they also discussed a wide range of other issues. Kumaratunga is learnt to have briefed Wickremesinghe on some changes she was making in respect of extended terms and promotions for officers in the armed forces.
It is not clear whether Wickremesinghe endorsed them or made any comments, but it was ironic that she should have discussed these extensions with the Opposition Leader and not her own Prime Minister.
Bi-partisanship carried a little too far, maybe. On the opposite page our Defence Correspondent deals with the unprecedented changes Kumaratunga has effected with just 18 days to go for the Presidential elections. If she hoped for her party's candidate, Mahinda Rajapakse to win, she had not bothered to brief him. In the event of such a victory, it was Rajapakse who was going to be the Minister of Defence and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. The two leaders are also learnt to have discussed the prevailing security situation, particularly developments in the East.
However, the Prime Minister had not had any contact with the President in the past week, or more. But she had conveyed to the Premier, through senior security officials, that he should not attend an election rally in the eastern Muslim village of Kathankudy. Intelligence reports had said a Tiger guerrilla plot was afoot to assassinate him. A vehicle with a claymore mine inside was to be used, or so the reports had said. Copies of these intelligence reports had also been sent to him.
Like during every election, some of those in the intelligence community played a dual role of reporting to the Government and to their own sources in the Opposition. Security advisors to Rajapakse had identified at least one senior intelligence officer in a service arm who was very active in this role. Yet, Rajapakse decided to be safe than sorry, and decided to keep away from the Kathankudy rally.
Days before the event, Rajapakse had telephoned Police Chief Chandra Fernando who is personally spearheading efforts to ensure the security of all candidates, particularly Wickremesinghe and Rajapakse. The IGP had confirmed there were reports of serious threats. So much so, even Kumaratunga had telephoned to inquire whether Rajapakse had in fact gone to Kathankudy ignoring her advice.
The Premier now had second thoughts. He still wanted to go East. So he asked his brother, Gothabaya, to check whether he should re-consider. The former Lieutenant Colonel, who later acquired US citizenship, is now a security consultant to the Prime Minister. He is now the most sought after person by senior officers in the security forces. Brother Gothabaya made calls to his own sources in the intelligence community and serving officers in the east. He told brother Mahinda he should go and there was no problem on the ground.
Rajapakse then travelled and addressed the rally. Joining him were Mangala Samaraweera, Wimal Weerawansa, A.H.M. Fowzie and a host of others. "It would have been a foolish thing if I did not take part in the rally," Rajapakse told an aide who accompanied him.
Last Tuesday, Kumaratunga had a delayed meeting with members of the Podu Peramuna Executive Committee. Rajapakse had turned up there but left without meeting her. He probably knew that if he came on time, the President would still not be there, and then he could leave saying he was there, but not having to engage the President in yet another verbal duel.
The meeting had begun hours later. Kumaratunga charged that Rajapakse had abandoned all the efforts she and her party had taken to achieve peace.
"I also told him this," interjected Minister Fowzie prompting Kumaratunga to prod harder at Rajapakse (in absentia). It was LSSP's Tissa Vitharana who pointed out there was no point in raising an issue over principles and paving the way for a Wickremesinghe victory. At the end of the meeting, participants had taken a formal decision to support Rajapakse. Another formal decision, that is. How many more formal decisions Rajapakse needs from the SLFP is the question with only 17 days for the polls.
That same night, around 1 a.m. Rajapakse had a visitor at Temple Trees. It was Venerable Uduwe Dhammaloka Thera. The two had a friendly discourse. Rajapakse aides said Ven. Dhammaloka Thera had asked Rajapakse for the portfolio of Buddhist Affairs if he won. Rajapakse had responded by assuring the prelate he would give him a position in keeping with his talent and capability to make a worthy contribution to Buddhism in Sri Lanka. Apparently the Ven. Dhammaloka was not pleased. Later in the week he announced his support for Wickremesinghe. Rajapakse aides claim he had been offered the position of a head of a proposed Buddhist Affairs Authority by Wickremesinghe.
Rajapakse's campaign staff is also worried about Foreign Minister Anura Bandaranaike. It was early this week that Rajapakse's Running Mate wrote to his sister Kumaratunga complaining that Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle had offered the post of premiership to Wimal Weerawansa or Mangala Samaraweera. He claimed it was rightfully his because the SLFP Central Committee had decided so. Bandaranaike also castigated Nirmala Kotelawala, a deputy minister, for his remarks that he was criticising Rajapakse and was not fully backing his campaign. Bandaranaike had declared he had never heard of "this Kotelawala".
The latter hit back this week by saying "how can he know about me. He is never in the country." With this polls round the corner, some multi million dollar deals are being negotiated by some ruling party VIPs. In one instance, a prime plot of land meant for a hospital had been sold to a private institution. A billion dollar oil exploration deal is also said to be on the pipeline.
Meanwhile, Kumaratunga continues to maintain a tight rein on the state media. The news schedules of Rupavahini are being delivered to her daily. The State print media gives her prominence on their front pages, sidelining the ruling party's Presidential candidate. State media officials were last week discussing with a senior Government officials about some files containing alleged deals made by Rajapakse.
SLFP insiders now forecast a stepped up "guerrilla war" as Election Day draws near. They say several "missiles" were in store to be fired. "Don't be surprised if there are a few crossovers. There will also be speakers on our platform batting for Wickremesinghe," said a campaign staffer.
Plans are afoot for president Chandrika Kumaratunga to address the nation. Although a date has not yet been fixed, indications are that the address, to be nationally televised and broadcast country wide, is likely to be on November 15. This is a day after the polls campaign closes. Though it is not a polls related address, SLFP sources says, she will tell the nation on the eve of her retirement her achievements and her commitment to the peace process. She is also to spell out the policies that she followed as leader of the SLFP.
Kumaratunga, who has to end her term within the next four weeks, has been a fighter during her eleven and half year career. In 2003, she took over the defence portfolio from Wickremesinghe's UNF Government and later sacked it from power by dissolving Parliament. She then called a General Election and having won the elections, formed a United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) Government.
They say there are no permanent enemies in politics. There are only permanent interests. So the Opposition has become her darling, as her "guerrilla" war with Rajapakse and his team continues. This is one instance where there will be no ceasefire either before the elections or thereafter.
